Strategic Studies of the Islamic Revolution

Strategic Studies of the Islamic Revolution

Pathology of Low Economic Growth in Iran in the 1390s (2010s)

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Nasim Ghobashi 1
Negin Kiani deh Kiani 2
1 PhD student in economics and researcher at the Institute for Strategic Research
2 Master of Accounting, Tarbiat Modares University
10.22034/irsj.2025.503102.1103
Abstract
Low economic growth has been one of the most significant challenges for Iran in the 1390s (2010s), significantly impacting public welfare. Despite the country's access to rich natural resources, a strategic geographical position, and a young and capable workforce, the economic growth outcomes during this decade have been disappointing in terms of improving economic indicators. Central Bank statistics reveal that the economic growth rate in the 1390s was the lowest compared to previous decades. In the years 1391 (2012-2013), 1392 (2013-2014), 1394 (2015-2016), 1397 (2018-2019), and 1398 (2019-2020), Iran experienced significant negative growth rates of -4.3% and -3%, with the average economic growth in the 1390s being around 1%. Moreover, the economic growth of various sectors also followed a highly volatile trend, with some years experiencing substantial negative growth. Among the reasons for the decline in economic growth in the 1390s are factors such as a significant decline in investment, productivity of production factors and foreign trade, along with inflation, sanctions, and external factors like the COVID-19 pandemic. Ayatollah Khamenei has emphasized certain requirements and solutions for economic growth in various statements, including: improving labor productivity, focusing on domestic capacities, addressing justice alongside economic growth, supporting knowledge-based enterprises, preventing raw material exports, directing credit and money supply, reducing imports of consumer goods, combating smuggling, and implementing policies related to Article 44 of the Constitution and downsizing the government.
Keywords
Economic growth
Iran's economy
1390s (2010s)
productivity
investment
capital formation
Subjects
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Strategic Studies of the Islamic Revolution
Volume 2, Issue 3 - Serial Number 7
Special Issue on the Economic Pathology of the Nineties
Autumn 2024
Pages 73-97